Revenge of the (Baseball) Nerds!!
Sabermetrics is the scientific way of analyzing Baseball.
It started out as a normal Sunday afternoon in the beginning of March. Spring training games were playing in the background, courtesy of MLB Network, when a couple of my fraternity brothers were engaging in an online debate over the World Baseball Classic. Truth be told, the debate had more to do with nationalistic pride than actual baseball information, but that surely didn’t stop me from jumping in the mix. In an attempt to tweak my Dominican fraternity brother, Onyx, I made a remark that looked something like this:
Roberto Clemente > Manny Ramirez.
What ensued was a good ol’ fashioned sports debate, supported by statistics from the good people at baseball-reference.com. We went back and forth over several mind-numbingly long emails (you would’ve thought we were debating America’s fiscal policy), essentially battling to a draw. Onyx was clinging to his argument that Manny’s offensive value more than make up for his defensive deficiencies, while I argued that Clemente’s offensive numbers were above average, and even though they weren’t Manny caliber, he more than held his own. I also argued that Clemente should (and does) get extra points, not only for playing the field, but playing the field at a tremendously high level. Clemente was as good a defender as Manny is a hitter. Conversely, Clemente was an above average offensive player, while Manny is a liability on defense, and should probably be a DH. I take Clemente; He takes Manny. It happens. It’s just a typical difference on baseball philosophy, one that isn’t going to be resolved over a few emails. The Jews & Palestinians will establish peace in the Middle East before these types of sports arguments are put to rest! I digress.
During the course of the debate, I pointed out certain stats that, in my opinion, are obsolete when debating individual player performances. The stats that were used were Runs (# of times a player scores a run), RBI (Runs Batted In), .Avg (Batting Average= At-Bats / Hits). I was immediately hit with fierce resistance. How dare I challenge traditional stats? Who do I think I am? Some sort of Baseball professor? Well, actually, yes. That’s beside the point though.
Strangely, the main opposition did not come from Onyx (although it isn’t that strange considering the fact that Onyx is a knowledgeable baseball fan), it came from another one of my dear brothers, Jorge (sadly, he has no relation to Posada). This came as a surprise to me, because while he frequently challenges my baseball points, this seemed like a simple enough statement: “OPS is the best stat to determine a hitter’s offensive value.”
That statement was taken from my email response, attacking the use of batting average to determine a hitter’s value. While it is the most commonly used statistic (by people who know as much baseball as I know quantum physics), it is deeply flawed because it gives you an incomplete picture of the player’s individual contribution.
Jorge wrote:
Your OPS argument is going to get thrown in a landfill in jersey or even
CT. somewhere.
Pete Rose career ops = .784/// the hits leader arguably the best hitter
ever
Ty Cobb career ops = .945 higher then Pete.Your stat seems to reward homers that’s it, your stat has a hundred more
examples of stupidity.
Interesting. There are a hundred examples to show OPS’ stupidity and he chooses the one that made the least amount of sense. It was like Christmas morning for me when I read that! First of all, yes OPS does reward homers, because is should. It rewards extra base hits with extra points, while a single only gets counted once. It makes sense that Ty Cobb had a higher OPS than Pete Rose, because while Rose had slightly more homeruns (160-117, so much for only rewarding homeruns, huh?) & doubles (746-724), Cobb more than doubled Rose in the triples department (135-295). He also got on base at a better percentage than Rose (Rose only had 317 more walks than Cobb despite playing in 527 more games-more than 3 full major league seasons).
It’s simple logic, really. OPS tells you so much more than batting average ever could. It does the job batting average is SUPPOSED to do. OPS basically tells you two things. How often a hitter is successful (the number of times he gets on base via a hit, BB, etc) and HOW successful he is (extra base hits). Batting average only gives you the average of hits to at-bats. It doesn’t tell you how often those hits are extra base hits or how many walks a player gets. In fact, batting average is a misnomer. It should really be called Hitting Average, because that’s all it gives you, an incomplete picture.
In other words, how can you make a real determination about a player’s offensive value when it leaves out much of what actually constitutes value? In baseball, a double is more valuable than a single; a triple more so than a double, and the homerun is king. Batting average, in its infinite wisdom, scores a single the same as a homerun! How astonishingly foolish! On top of that, it gives you absolutely no credit for a walk, like it never even happened. Since when do walks not count? It’s moronic at best.
That doesn’t mean we should throw out the baby with the bath water. Batting average can be a useful stat in the same way stolen bases is, as a supporting argument. That’s assuming you actually want to make sense, of course.
For more information on Sabermetric stats, visit this blog.
What’s Needed In This Economic Climate? Ownage!!!
Univ. of Connecticut head basketball coach got into a heated exchange with a freelance reporter Ken Krayeske. Calhoun was upset with the line of questioning, which seemed to imply that he was contributing to the economic crisis by being Connecticut’s highest paid state employee with an annual salary of $1.6 million.
What ensued is a classic coach/reporter battle that makes the sports media one of the most exciting places to practice journalism. Regardless of what side you come down on, you have to appreciate the spectacle that comes from two human beings trying to assassinate each other’s character in a very public setting.
A-Rod: The Reaction
Alex Rodriguez faces tough questioning from anxious members of media at Yankee Camp.
The Alex Rodriguez show officially hit Yankee camp this afternoon, as A-Rod addressed his past steroid use in front of an estimated 150-200 members of the media (I wasn’t included, who knew having a blog wasn’t enough of a credential to get into the biggest press conference since President Obama’s first one?). The ordeal lasted just about 35 minutes and included an uncomfortable moment as Alex Rodriguez was quasi-overcome with emotion. This action was obviously scrpited, and it looked like it.
“And to my teamates,” Rodriguez said, before pausing for 37 seconds while pretending to fight back tears, “thank you.”
This was clearly part of the Team Rodriguez strategy: look remorseful by any means neccessary. I’m guessing someone took a page from the Andy Pettitte image rehabilitation book. The problem with that is this: there were no tears. None. In that one, uncomfortable moment, Rodriguez confirmed exactly what everyone had always thought: he’s a total fraud. Let me be clear. I am not saying that I think Rodriguez was faking the emotion, I know he was.It was evident in his body language, in his voice and most importantly, in his eyes!
With that said, the press conference went well for Rodriguez, minus the fake tears. He actually seemed genuine for the most part and he gave great detail to what he took and how he took it:
“Going back to 2001, my cousin started telling me about a substance that you could purchased over the counter in the DR [Dominican Republic]. In the streets, it’s known as “boli” or “bole.” It was his understanding that it would give me a dramatic energy boost and otherwise harmless. My cousin and I, one more ignorant than the other, decided it was a good idea to start taking it. My cousin would administer it to me, but neither of us knew how to use it properly, providing just how ignorant we both were. It was at this point we decided to take it twice a month for about six months.”
In that one revealing quote, A-Rod did a better job than McGwire, Bonds, Palmerio et al in the admission department, although I have to wonder how some of the Domincan ballplayers feel about his revelation that DR is basically Balco Del Caribe. Regardless, Rodriguez made sure to take the responsibility for the steroid use, and answered the question of HGH use with a swift “no”. In fact, Rodriguez went further than he was required to go. He also mentioned the fact that he took a substance known as “Ripped Fuel” during his days with the Seattle Mariners. He was quick to say that it has since “been banned by Major League Baseball, I believe, and also it’s been removed from the shelves at GNC.”
If one had to give a pass/fail grade for Rodriguez’ performance, you would have to give him a pass. He answered every question in what appeared to be a forthright manner, while taking responsibility for his actions. He did not try to scapegoat his cousin (although he probably should’ve left him out altogether) or anyone else, which is more than we can say for other steroid users.
The only other disingenuious portion of his answers was the fact that he kept harping on the fact that he was both “young” and “stupid”. Any thinking person has to reject that claim since the admitted use happened from ages 24-27. He was hardly a baby. Still, it isn’t enough to convict him of anything other than damage control, which is understandable.
The storm has come and gone. Now there is nothing left but baseball (finally!), until the other shoe drops that is.
Stay tuned, As Alex Turns will return after these messages.
The Great Joba Debate
Joba Chamberlain may be final piece to Yankees' championship puzzle.
Yankee phenom Joba Chamberlain is the subject of a fierce debate regarding his role with the ball club. Ever since he came on the scene in late 2007, Chamberlain has been dazzling fans, and opposing hitters, with a dominant arsenal of pitches that include: a top-notch fastball, a wicked slider, a knee-bending curve and a still-improving change up. The fastball and slider are his two most polished pitches, and they were prominently on display during his 2007 campaign when he sparked the Yankees’ run to the postseason with a dominating performance out of the bullpen. His numbers were nothing short of extraordinary: 2-0, 0.38 ERA in 24 IP with 34 K & only 6 BB. Just like that, New York had fallen in love with its newest sports hero. He was hailed as the future successor to the great Mariano Rivera and represented the missing bridge to Rivera at the end of close games. Surely his place is in the bullpen, right? Not so fast.
Joba Chamberlain has been a starter his entire pitching career. He was a starting pitcher in college with Nebraska and he was a starter in the minor leagues with the Yankees (until he converted to relief to fill a major league need mid-2007). More importantly, he has starter stuff. And not just middle of the rotation starter stuff. I’m talking number 1, ace stuff. As a reliever, he only relied on his fastball and slider, because he didn’t have to face lineups more than once per game. As a starter, he features what scouts call a plus (+) curveball, similar to a young Roger Clemens, pre-juice of course. With three plus pitches in his arsenal, and his impeccable control -he has allowed a total of 45 walks in 124.1 career innings while striking out 152 batters-, Chamberlain would be a monumental waste of talent in the bullpen (provided he could stay healthy as a starter over the course of a 162 game season).
The most precious commodity in baseball is starting pitching because it is the most important factor in a team’s success, but it is the most difficult to acquire. This is evident in the player’s salaries. Elite starting pitchers command the most money on the open market (unless an everyday stud like an A-Rod or Teixiera is available), making it less likely that the elite starter will make it to free agency. It is very rare that a stud like C.C. Sabbathia is available, as teams usually lock them up before they hit the market. This places an increased emphasis on player development, particularly in the pitching department. Therefore, when a prospect like Joba Chamberlain comes along, his maximum value is in the rotation. It is much easier to find a serviceable 7th or 8th inning reliever than it is to find a lock down ace to lead a major league rotation. Joba Chamberlain is that lock down ace.
The argument has been made that the recent drought of Yankee championships has been due to a lack of reliable arms in the bullpen that can get the ball to Mariano Rivera with the lead in tact. While there is some validity to that statement, it can just as easily be stated- and more plausibly I would argue- that the lack of rings since 2000 can be directly attributed to the lack of a true number 1 starter. After all, the Yankees have never returned to the Fall Classic since losing Andy Petitte, David Wells, and Clemens after the 2003 season.
Postseason after postseason, Yankee fans have watched mediocre pitchers put in big game situations and fail- miserably. We have seen Kevin Brown/Javier Vasquez in 2004. Randy Johnson spitting the bit in 2005 AND 2006. The list can go on forever. Enough!
The only people who want Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen are the people who have very little knowledge of baseball, and the way it’s played. A starting pitcher, especially a dominant one, can elevate a team to victory in a short series (See Beckett, Josh). This is what the Yankees have lacked since 2003. That is what the Yankees have in Joba Chamberlain.
The Yankees’ messiah has arrived. Who wants him in the bullpen?
Selig Cries Foul; Looks Like Fool
Commissioner Selig throws hands up in face of latest steroid scandal.
According to a published report by USA Today, Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig is mulling a possible punishment for newest social pariah Alex Rodriguez’ admitted steroid use.
“It was against the law, so I would have to think about that,” Selig told USA Today. “It’s very hard. I’ve got to think about all that kind of stuff.”
I call bullsh-t, Bud! Selig does not have a leg to stand on regarding Rodriguez’ drug use since it happened during a time when the substance was not banned in baseball. Furthermore, Rodriguez tested positive in a test that was agreed to be anonymous and without consequence. Of course, Selig knows all this, so why the sudden puffing of the chest? It’s simple.
What you are witnessing is a commissioner desperately trying to hide his own incompetence to save his legacy. Unfortunately for Selig, its little too late. Selig has presided over the darkest era in professional sports, while turning a blind eye to the rampant steroid use that was sullying the record books.
Selig wants to point to a 1997 memo that he released, warning players about the dangers of steroids, as if that signifies any significant action on his part. Please. Understand this: Bud Selig knew what was going on. He knew that McGwire and Sosa were juicing, but he allowed it. Why? Because it saved baseball, that’s why. Let’s get this straight. Bud Selig wants us to believe that he started taking anti-steroid actions in 1997, but that he had no clue that McGwire and Sosa were on the juice. He celebrates the homerun chase and declares that “baseball is back”, but he had no suspicion regarding average players shattering the records of baseball immortals? It’s disingenuous at best.
Either he knew baseball players were using performance enhancing drugs, or he was extremely naïve, but either way he is just as complicit as Bonds & co., maybe even more. He profiteered from this steroid era as much as anyone (after all, he made $18 million in fiscal 2007), yet he has the nerve to condemn players for falling into a culture that he enabled.
Sorry, Bud, but history will remember you as the man who sold the soul of baseball to drug cheats in exchange for an improved bottom line. It was a good business move at the time, but you don’t get to act morally outraged now.
You made the bed, now you must lie in it.
Brett Favre Retires; Jets Get Better
Brett Favre announced his retirement from the NFL
Brett Favre announced his retirement earlier today, sending thousands of Jets fans rejoicing in the streets of New York City. Okay, maybe not rejoicing, but I am quite positive no one shed any tears. Favre collapsed down the stretch last season (he should’ve signed with the Mets!), and cost the Jets a shot at the playoffs with his bad decisions and poor game management.
Am I the only one who sees Favre as a total fraud? Sure, he announced his retirement today, only AFTER he was informed that he would not be given his outright release. Typical Favre. Don’t be surprised if we get another “I want to return” saga once camp opens, but he’s used up all his good will. Nobody want’s to see Brett Favre in a football uniform, unless your the other team, of course (then you may actually catch some passes in the form of INTs).
Favre leaves New York for Canton. Will there be another stop along the way? For the sake of good football, I hope not.
The Steroid Era: Tino Martinez?
Was Tino Martinez' spectacular 1997 season aided by steroids?
Tino Martinez, a part of four World Championship teams as a member of the New York Yankees, is revered in the Big Apple for being a consummate professional and clutch performer. Martinez, in a lot of ways, embodied the type of sports story that New York fans love. Traded to the Bronx before the start of the 1996 season, Tino was not only faced with the reality of playing in the biggest media market on planet earth, he was facing the seemingly impossible task of replacing Yankee legend, Don Mattingly.
Things didn’t start well here for Martinez, as he got off to a slow start, hitting just
.247 in April before turning his season around and winning over Yankees fans on the way to a World Series victory. Now, his numbers that season are normal for him (.292 25HR 117RBI), and do not indicate juicing. However, there is an interesting fact that could have served as an impetus for Tino Martinez using steroids. (Please note: I am not accusing Tino Martinez of using performance enhancing drugs, but the fact remains, he played in the steroid era, and any player is subject to having their numbers scrutinized by bloggers like me.)
Before game 3 of the 1996 World Series, Martinez was informed by then manager Joe Torre that he would not be in the starting lineup, in favor of slugger Cecil Fielder. This couldn’t have sat well with a guy like Martinez, although to his credit, he handled the benching like a professional. A look at his 1996 postseason numbers show that Martinez struggled tremendously in October, putting together an A-Rod style playoff run that featured nine hits (3 extra base hits) and zero homeruns & RBIs in 15 playoff games. The Yankees ended up winning the title, no thanks to Tino’s postseason performance, and that had to bother him.
Fast forward to 1997, Tino Martinez shows up to camp in tremendous shape (athletic code for jacked, ripped, etc.), and vows to get off to a better start. Boy did he ever. Not only did Tino Martinez have a fantastic year, he had a truly great season. The type of season that would get you into the hall of fame if you could approximate it over a ten year career, or the type of season that would get you mentioned with the greatest ever. That’s how good Tino Martinez was in 1997. He achieved career highs in homeruns (44) and RBI (144), and he slugged 20 (.577) points higher than his then-career best slugging percentage (.551, 1995-Seattle Mariners, where he hit sandwiched between a young Ken Griffey Jr. & Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner & co.).
Where have we seen this before? A noticeable change in physical stature coupled with a drastic spike in offensive statistics? It seems reasonable to question whether or not that season was performance enhanced, especially since he never came close to duplicating it (sure, he hit 354 homeruns in 2001, but his slugging percentage was way down).
Even with all this, there are several factors in his favor. Let’s examine. For example, 1997 was his second year with the Yankees. Coming off a championship, there was less pressure on him to perform. Okay, so he was more comfortable. Does comfort equal 19 more homeruns? I don’t think so. Another argument goes like this: He was also still in his physical prime, so his numbers jumping in 1997 would indicate a natural progression in his physical ability. I will concede that he was still young, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that this was the beginning of an upward statistical trend in his career. Sadly, the numbers show otherwise. Tino Martinez’ power numbers steadily declined immediately the following season. He went from 44 homeruns in ’97 to 28 homeruns in ’98 & ’99. His slugging percentage also dropped precipitously from .577 to .505, .458 & .422, not horrible by any stretch, but certainly not 1997-esque. In a time where his numbers should have been naturally increasing, they were actually declining to look like his pre-1997 stats.
If we’ve learned one thing from the steroid scandal in baseball, it’s this: No one is above suspicion (except for Derek Jeter, of course). I am not accusing Tino Martinez of juicing, but I am officially suspicious. Was Tino’s 1997 season an eerie foreshadowing of the problems to come, or a freak once-in-a-lifetime storybook season ruined by the likes of the real cheaters?
As always, your thoughts…
Report: A-Rod Cops A-Plea; Admits Use, Is ‘very sorry and deeply regretful’
According to ESPN, Alex Rodriguez hasadmitted to taking steroidsin a sit down interview with Peter Gammons. In the interview, Rodriguez admits to using performing enhancing drugs during his three year stay with the Texas Rangers, 2001-2003.
I postulated this exact scenairo in my earlier post, citing an obvious statistical spike in his power numbers during his time in Texas. During that three year span, Rodriguez averaged 52 homeruns, a dramatic increase from the 37 he averaged in his previous five seasons (1996-2000). Conversely, A-Rod averaged just 39 homeruns per season during his first three years in New York (2004-2006), before a breakout 2007 campaign in which he hit 54 homeruns en route to the winning AL MVP.
Hey Schilling, Shut Up!
Can you hear that noise? Oh never mind that, its just some old, washed up athlete, trying to stay relevant by keeping a better athlete’s name in his mouth. It’s certainly understandable, to think that Curt Schilling has to be bitter. I mean, he is presumably a clean player, who dominated in an era tainted by steroid use. He should be lauded. He should be idolized. He should be recognized for his terrific achievements against insurmountable odds, and still, no one cares.
Such is the reality for Schilling, a once great pitcher, who has a habit of making more headlines with his mouth than with anything he ever did on the baseball field. Sure, he will forever be known for pitching with that bloody sock in 2004, and he was on two teams that derailed the great Yankees on their way to October glory. Schilling is a truly great pitcher, especially when you look at his career through the prism of the Steroid Era, but his constant bashing of accused steroid users is annoying. He sounds like the typical kid whining for attention.
The fact is nobody outside of Boston cares about Curt Schilling. He was a non factor for the Red Sox in 2008, and is destined for retirement soon. The only way he can get his name on the ESPN scroll is by commenting on other players. No one will contact Curt Schilling to track his progress from surgery and his attempt at a comeback, but they sure will let him run his fat mouth about A-Rod or Bonds. It’s the only interesting facet of Schilling’s life anymore, and a sad cruel twist of fate.
Sure, Schilling will get his attention now. Bashing his contemporaries and acting like he was some sort of choir boy. As if he never saw anything. Please. We know better, Curt!
So, Mr. Schilling, shut your mouth before some hungry journalist goes digging around your past. Who knows, maybe there is something interesting about you after all.
A-Rod: The Juicy Argument
Alex Rodriguez is embroiled in the latest steroid scandal to rock MLB. Admits use during 2001-2003 seasons.
Let me start by saying this: Alex Rodriguez is guilty of testing positive for steroids in 2003- that I believe. I believe he knowingly took them in an attempt to get a competitive edge, and that it probably contributed to his incredible 2002 season (where he clubbed 57 HRs-his career best). I’d say based on the information we’ve received, that its safe to assume that A-Roid was juicing from 2001-2003, his entire career with the Rangers. While I don’t agree with his decision, I can understand why he chose to go in that route. (Before you jump all over me, yes I am a Yankee apologist, and YES I am backing A-Rod because he is a Yankee, but I have also made this argument for Bonds)
If you look at the landscape of the MLB through the steroid era, it is quite obvious that juicing was rampant (the Mitchell report tells us that). This rampant steroid use did two things: #1-It forced the marginal players to juice because its the only way they could stay in the big leagues. #2- it caused the mega stars (who were truly great: Bonds, A-Rod) to juice because they were witnessing pedestrian ballplayers (McGwire, Sosa etc) achieve numbers that they were not worthy of, so naturally they wanted in on that action.
Also, A-Rod came into a team that seemed to be a haven for steroid users. When he joined Texas, he played with the likes of Canseco & Palmerio, as well as plenty of other juicers. He found himself right in the eye of the storm. If you couple that reality with the fact that he was under enormous pressure from signing his record 10-year $252 million contract (and years of watching inferior ballplayers steal his shine), you can easily understand why he turned to the juice. That is not a justification by any means, just an insight into his possible thought process.
I do not believe that this will prevent him from getting into the Hall of Fame, and I believe that it shouldn’t. First, I don’t think that he was juicing prior to 2001, nor do I believe that he has juiced after 2003. What evidence do I have to support my claim? I turn to the best evidence ever, the numbers.
Alex Rodriguez has always put up spectacular numbers, but there has only been one statistical jump in his career that would indicate performance enhancing, and oddly enough (although I guess it isn’t that odd lol) it coincides with his positive drug test. From 1996-2000 he was fairly consistent, averaging just under 37 homeruns per season (36.8 to be exact), with his high at 42 and his low at 23. That is phenomenal, particularly for a shortstop, but it’s not eye popping enough to raise serious suspicion of steroid use. The big jump came in 2001, his first year in Texas. From 2001-03, Rodriguez averaged 52 homeruns, a dramatic increase. This was originally attributed to Arlington being a HR friendly park (which it is, especially in the summer, the ball just flies out of that bandbox), although we know better now- he was juicing.
All of this takes us to 2003, when he tested positive for steroids in what was supposed to be anonymous tests. He was subsequently notified of his positive test, and informed that random testing would be implemented in 2004. That meant if he got caught again, he would be subject to public humiliation, as well as disciplinary action from MLB in the form of fines and suspensions.
It is my position that he immediately STOPPED juicing before the 2004 season (his first in NY). I am not making this case because I am a Yankee fan (though it is ultra-convenient) , the numbers actually back me up. In his first three seasons with the Yankees (presumably off the juice) A-Rod averaged 39 homeruns, a dramatic drop in power from the 52 he averaged in the previous 3-year span. In that time period, MLB had drastically improved its steroid testing, so much that it is now regarded as the toughest in American sports. He has been randomly tested since 2004 and has come up clean. He was also part of the 2006 World Baseball Classic, which held its participants to the international standard of drug testing, which is more invasive than MLB testing. He was clean throughout. Before his 2007 season (where he hit 54 homeruns) he reported to camp 10 pounds lighter, as he felt he put on too much weight in 2006 (which manifested itself in a poor defensive year from A-Rod when he committed a career high 24 errors).
I say all of that to say this. Alex Rodriguez is still one of the greatest ballplayers of any generation, and it is a shame that the culture of baseball was so polluted that it corrupted a guy who didn’t need to juice into using steroids. I am not defending his decision, but I refuse to get on the moral high horse and judge him. The athlete is always looking for an edge, and if they can get it and think they can get away with it, you better believe they’ll do it (Bob Gibson is on record saying that if steroids were available to him in his career he would’ve taken it without a doubt). This whole era is a black eye on baseball, but we shouldn’t be engaging in this witch hunt.
Rodriguez needs to admit to his use on day one (and use this blog as a guide to how he should go about it lol), answer any and all questions during an hour long press conference, and then get on with the business of putting together an MVP year. If he hits 50 HRs while leading the Yankees into October, all of this will be forgotten.
